AS QUOTED
“Too often, commitment was measured by how many hours you were willing to work. But commitment is best measured not by the time one is willing to give up, but by the energy one wants to put in.”

—Former KPMG chief executive Eugene O’Kelly in his new book, Chasing Daylight: How My Forthcoming Death Transformed My Life (McGraw Hill, 2006)

SIGN OF THE TIMES
Beware Expert Predictions
ou would think that experts are more likely to correctly predict the future (stock market and economic swings, to name a few). Well, think again. In fact, the more specialized the forecasters, the less likely their predictions are to hit the mark.

This counterintuitive assessment is the result of 20 years of research by a University of California, Berkeley, psychologist who selected 284 people who made their living commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends. He asked and received predictions for a total of 82,361 questions, assessing the probability of future events in their area of expertise—and found their forecasts were no more likely to be accurate than if he tallied the dart-throwing scores of monkeys.

The psychologist, Philip Tetlock, assembled all these data for his book, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? (Princeton University Press, 2005).

The results may be a surprise to us ordinary folk—those not in the psychological community. But more than 100 earlier studies agreed that experts’ predictions scored no better than statistical chance.

Specialists sought after for forecasts by media do even worse than their colleagues not in the limelight. Tetlock’s explanation: The more famous the forecasters, the more overblown their forecasts. And these experts suffer the common shortcoming of all humans: We tend to fall in love with our hunches. An even worse drawback suffered by experts is that, because they know so much, they are able to enlist more support of their pet theories.

—Stanley Zarowin

SURVEY SAVVY
A Note of Pessimism
Senior executives of U.S. multinationals were sounding less optimistic about both the domestic and world economies in the latter part of 2005. According to Management Barometer, some 59% of them saw energy prices as a possible deterrent to their company’s growth (compared with 39% in the second quarter).

Only 70% of managing directors and CFOs said the U.S. economy was growing, compared with 84% a year ago. Executives from energy-vulnerable companies in particular expected they would have slower revenue growth, less new hiring and fewer key investments.

LIMELIGHT
Ole Miss Professor Honored
ale L. Flesher, Arthur Andersen Alumni Professor of Accountancy and associate dean of the University of Mississippi, is the first person to win the newly created Thomas J. Burns Biographical Research Award, which was presented at the Academy of Accounting Historians Hall of Fame conference at Ohio State University. The award celebrates his outstanding contribution to the accounting field—as a researcher he has published more than 30 biographical articles about accounting leaders, from Charles Waldo Haskins and Elijah Watt Sells to Andrew Barr, a recent SEC chief accountant.

In accepting the award, Flesher said he was honored to have an award named for Thomas Burns, with whom he had worked in the 1980s, and gave credit for his success to his coauthors, among whom were his wife Tonya Flesher, Gary Previts of Case Western Reserve University and Tommie Singleton of the University of Alabama.

TOP TEN
Cities for Relocation
Atlanta
Austin, Texas
New York City
Orlando, Fla.
Phoenix
San Diego
Scottsdale, Ariz.
Raleigh-Durham, N.C.
Tampa, Fla.
Washington, D.C.

Source: Yahoo! HotJobs, http://hotjobs.yahoo.com, 2005.

ON THE RECORD
A Tip of the Hat to CPAs
he certified public accountant (CPA) license, in particular, remains a key requirement for advancement in public accounting and private industry. In addition to the CPA credential, some of the most marketable certifications include the CIA, CMA and CFE. Also in demand are technology-based certifications, such as the CISA, the CISSP and the CITP credential awarded by the AICPA to accounting and finance professionals who demonstrate expertise in business technology issues.

“Next Generation Accountant: A New Outlook on a Timeless Profession,” a research study by Robert Half International Inc., www.nextgenaccountant.com, 2005.

SIGN OF THE TIMES
Going to the Dogs
hat do you get when you combine a beloved hobby with a CPA credential? If you’re John A. York of Royal Palm Beach, Fla., you start a dog-related company, operate it successfully and then add CPA services to the mix for your fellow dog-loving small business owners. York says expanding the six-year-old Bow-Wow Video (www.bowwowvideo.com), which trains and videotapes dogs in agility competitions, to include tax preparation and accounting services evolved naturally. When his customers found out he was a CPA, they started asking questions about their existing businesses and starting new ones.

There are all kinds of unique businesses out there that need the specialized functions a CPA can provide—such as assisting with bookkeeping and tax compliance and advising on the tax implications of forming an entity, York says. If you just take a look around, you may come across an area that really interests you. He’s been providing CPA services to individual dog trainers, training centers and retailers of dog products—such as food, toys, bedding and treats—for more than a year now.

If you’re considering a career expansion into the unknown, don’t be afraid to ask questions, York says. Get advice from professionals you trust as to whether you can start and sustain a business in the area you’re considering and what the advantages and disadvantages are.

York uses networked computers in the office, and cell phones, a laptop and a portable hard drive on the road. He uses QuickBooks and Quicken software so distant clients can e-mail him their files. He also uses PCAnywhere to mirror his clients’ computer on his own screen so he can walk them through the system when they need help.

York’s favorite part of the dog business is meeting people from all over the country and traveling to agility trials to see them. And, of course, the best thing about working with dogs is that “they give unconditional love,” York says. “No matter how rough a day I’ve had, when I get home I always have happy tails wagging to greet me.”

The tails are attached to Debit, Credit, Bank and Tax Man, as well as Raven and Rumor. Is this a guy who’s crazy about his dogs and serious about his CPA training—or what?

—Laura Baron

SURVEY SAVVY
Well, Virginia…There May Be a Real Estate Bubble
t least according to a recent survey by ThinkGlink.com. With the value of U.S. residential real estate reaching more than $18.6 trillion, many Americans are sensitive to the question of whether there really is a bubble. Some 66.3% of survey respondents said they believed a bubble exists. But 44.7% said they wished people wouldn’t talk about it lest it become a self-fulfilling prophecy with panic selling lowering property values.

The survey also asked about the potential effect on the economy if the bubble does burst. A majority of respondents 57.6%—predicted a mildly negative effect. Another 24.6% predicted a massively negative impact. Only 16.8% thought an exploding bubble would be good for the economy.

GOLDEN BUSINESS IDEAS
Avoid Performance Negativism
fter you give a subordinate a poor performance review, beware of the ensuing silence. Wise managers keep the communication lines open by offering suggestions for improvement and setting short-term goals with frequent review dates. That sort of response sends a message to the unhappy employee: The manager wants me to succeed and will try hard to find ways to make that happen.

Maintain the Momentum
he job of a good manager is to keep everyone focused and driving toward the business plan. To do that you’ve got to cut off naysayers and what-if thinking, but be sure to listen to such comments in private to be sure you haven’t overlooked a plan flaw.

Set short-term goals so participants can quickly see accomplishments; give foot-draggers even shorter-term goals to perk up their enthusiasm. Monitor progress continuously and act quickly to resolve problems.

When you’ve reached the goal, acknowledge it publicly with a celebration so staff will know it’s appreciated.

—Stanley Zarowin

SURVEY SAVVY

Clarification
CPA Richard Forrest, cited in our January Top Line column (page 14) for his helicopter exploits in hurricane-battered New Orleans, is a partner at Forrest and Kelley LLP, a Houston law firm specializing in helping accounting firms. His son, Richard Forrest II, is with the Houston accounting firm of Gainer, Donnelly & Desroches LLP.